Hey Chakkani Fam! Welcome to Your Weekly Financial Briefing! We've got bite sized market moves, big tech bets, and whispers of change from all over the world. Grab a cup of joe (or your preferred drink) and let's dive:

Bears & Bulls: Markets Notes & Numbers

• S&P 500: 5,460.48 -22.39 (-0.41%)

• NASDAQ: 17,732.60 -126.08 (-0.71%)

• Dow Jones: 39,118.86 -45.20 (-0.12%)

• 10-Year Treasury Yield: 4.392 (+0.104%)

• Bitcoin: $60,082.56 -1,354.33 (-2.2%)

  All data as of last trading day's market close time read more…

Market Bites::

1. Dow Climbs to One-Month High as Investors Shift Portfolios: 📈 The Dow Jones Industrial Average surged to a one-month high on Monday, closing at 39,408.32, boosted by investors diversifying their portfolios in anticipation of potential Federal Reserve interest rate cuts later this year. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq ended the day lower, reflecting a shift away from AI-linked stocks, particularly tech giants like Nvidia, which dropped 6.68% amid profit-taking after a recent spike.

🔍 As market participants braced for the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation metric, the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) report due Friday, there was a notable rotation into lagging sectors. Financials, energy, and utilities saw gains, with the energy sector advancing 2.73% driven by rising oil prices and increased demand expectations.

💡 Key takeaways:

• The Dow rose 0.66%, continuing a five-day winning streak, while the S&P 500 fell 0.31% and the Nasdaq dropped 1.09%.

• Nvidia and other semiconductor stocks saw declines, dragging down the broader tech sector.

• Investors anticipate two Fed rate cuts this year, with a 61% chance of a 25-basis-point cut in September.

• Broader market sentiment remains positive, suggesting confidence in a potential soft landing for the economy.

💬 "The market's selling some of the winners and buying some of the laggards," noted Jack Janasiewicz of Natixis Investment Managers, highlighting the strategic shift as investors prepare for the week's key economic data releases.

👀 Upcoming events include the durable goods report, weekly jobless claims, and final first-quarter GDP figures, along with the annual Russell index reconstitution and some quarterly earnings reports.

Overall, the market displayed a cautious optimism, balancing between profit-taking in high-flying stocks and strategic repositioning ahead of significant economic indicators.

2. Disney’s 'Inside Out 2' on Track to be 2024's First Billion-Dollar Blockbuster: 🎬 Disney and Pixar’s "Inside Out 2" has become the highest-grossing film of 2024, raking in $724.4 million worldwide as of Sunday. Box-office experts predict it will soon surpass $1 billion globally, following in the footsteps of Warner Bros.' "Barbie." This sequel has not only captivated family audiences but also attracted teens, marking a significant win for Disney and Pixar post-pandemic.

📈 Key Highlights:

• Highest-Grossing of 2024: With $724.4 million in earnings, "Inside Out 2" has outperformed "Dune: Part Two," which previously held the record at $711.8 million.

• Potential Billion-Dollar Hit: Expected to surpass the $1 billion mark, it would be the first film to do so since "Barbie."

• Strong Domestic Performance: One of only seven films to cross $100 million in its second weekend, joining the ranks of Disney's biggest hits like "Avengers: Endgame" and "Star Wars: The Force Awakens."

💬 "Inside Out 2's performance is the culmination of many things," said Shawn Robbins of Box Office Theory. "A meaningful story, Disney and Pixar’s brand appeal, and pent-up demand for a family movie have all contributed to this box-office storm."

🌍 Global Appeal:

• The film's international success is poised to grow, especially with its upcoming release in Japan, a significant market that contributed nearly $33 million to the original "Inside Out" in 2015.

• Paul Dergarabedian of Comscore highlighted the film’s universal appeal, noting its resonance across cultures and languages.

📊 Post-Pandemic Recovery:

• "Inside Out 2" is a crucial milestone for Disney and Pixar, whose animated features struggled during the pandemic due to streaming debuts and theater closures.

• No Disney animated feature had surpassed $480 million globally since 2019’s "Toy Story 4."

🚀 Industry Impact:

• The success of "Inside Out 2" is a much-needed boost for theater owners, marking a rebound from a slow start to the summer season.

• The film’s appeal to teens, a demographic crucial to the future of moviegoing, underscores the industry's efforts to rejuvenate cinema attendance.

Overall, "Inside Out 2" is set to join the billion-dollar club, revitalizing Disney and Pixar’s box-office prowess and signaling a promising future for family-friendly films.

3. Supreme Court Limits SEC Powers in Landmark Ruling: 📉 The U.S. Supreme Court, in a significant 6-3 decision, has curtailed the Securities and Exchange Commission's (SEC) ability to enforce securities laws through in-house adjudication. This ruling, authored by Chief Justice John Roberts, mandates that such adjudications violate the constitutional right to a trial by jury, thus impacting not only the SEC but potentially other federal agencies with similar procedures.

👩‍⚖️ Liberal Justice Sonia Sotomayor fiercely dissented, accusing the conservative majority of orchestrating a "power grab" and undermining the administrative state's regulatory framework. She highlighted this decision as part of a broader trend where the court has systematically eroded the authority of federal regulators, referencing past rulings that have simplified the dismissal of agency heads and restricted the powers of in-house judges.

📜 The majority opinion counters Sotomayor's critique, asserting that her stance would allow Congress to unduly consolidate prosecutorial and judicial powers within the executive branch, contrary to the Constitution's separation of powers.

🏛️ The case stemmed from hedge fund manager George Jarkesy's challenge against the SEC. Jarkesy, backed by influential figures like Elon Musk and Mark Cuban, argued that the SEC's in-house proceedings, which led to substantial penalties and professional restrictions for him, were inherently biased and constitutionally flawed. This sentiment was upheld by the New Orleans-based 5th Circuit U.S. Court of Appeals, leading to the Supreme Court's review.

🔍 Implications of the ruling are far-reaching. It not only restricts the SEC's enforcement mechanisms but also casts a shadow over similar practices by other regulatory bodies. This decision signals a judicial shift towards limiting federal regulatory powers, a victory for those advocating for reduced governmental oversight but a setback for proponents of robust regulatory frameworks.

🚨 Justice Sotomayor's dissent underscores a growing concern about the Supreme Court's direction, emphasizing the importance of maintaining the rule of law and regulatory balance in safeguarding public and economic interests.

4. Fed Governor Bowman Remains Open to Rate Hikes Amid Persistent Inflation Concerns: 📈 Federal Reserve Governor Michelle Bowman reiterated on Tuesday that she is open to raising interest rates if inflation does not show substantial improvement towards the Fed's 2% target. Despite recent moderations in inflation, Bowman emphasized that the time is not yet right to start lowering rates, reflecting a cautious stance in line with other Fed policymakers.

🔍 Key Points:

• Current Stance: Bowman stated that while a gradual reduction in the federal funds rate could become appropriate if inflation trends sustainably towards 2%, this condition has not yet been met.

• Recent Data: The Fed's preferred inflation indicator is slightly under 3%, indicating only "modest further progress" towards the target.

• Hawkish View: Among the most hawkish members of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), Bowman highlighted several "upside risks" that could necessitate further rate hikes if inflation stalls or reverses.

📊 Upcoming Data: The Commerce Department is set to release the May personal consumption expenditures price index on Friday, with economists predicting a 12-month inflation rate of 2.6%, slightly lower than April's figure.

🌍 Global Context: Bowman noted that the U.S. monetary policy path might diverge from other advanced economies, such as the European Central Bank, which recently lowered its key rates. She indicated that the Fed’s key overnight borrowing rate would likely remain in the 5.25%-5.50% range "for some time."

🗣️ Other Fed Officials:

• Governor Lisa Cook: Expressed optimism for significant progress on inflation by 2025, which would allow for future rate reductions. She also noted ongoing risk factors such as higher credit card delinquency rates and tighter credit conditions.

• San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly: Rejected the notion of preemptive rate cuts to hedge against potential economic slowdowns, emphasizing the importance of resolving inflation issues first.

• Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee: Suggested that continued positive inflation data could prompt a reassessment of the current restrictive policy stance.

💬 Bowman's Commitment: Bowman affirmed her readiness to adjust the target range for the federal funds rate if necessary, stressing the importance of a cautious approach given the uncertainties in the economic outlook. This stance aligns with the Fed’s broader strategy of ensuring inflation is firmly under control before considering policy easing.

Overall, Bowman’s comments underscore the Fed’s vigilant stance on inflation and the potential for further rate hikes if economic data does not align with their goals. The remarks reflect a broader sentiment within the Fed to prioritize inflation control while being cautious about premature policy changes.

5. Supreme Court Overturns Chevron Doctrine, Drawing Praise from Republicans and Business Leaders: The Supreme Court has overturned the Chevron doctrine, a legal precedent that allowed federal agencies to interpret ambiguous statutes, prompting significant reactions from political and business spheres.

🔍 Key Points:

• Chevron Doctrine: For 40 years, this doctrine guided judges to defer to federal agencies' interpretation of the law when statutory language was unclear.

• Supreme Court Decision: In a 6-3 ruling, the Court curtailed the power of federal agencies, asserting that only Congress has the authority to make laws.

🗣️ Reactions:

• Republican Lawmakers: Praised the decision as a restoration of constitutional balance.

  • Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell: Celebrated the end of agencies "filling in the legislative blanks."

  • Sen. Tom Cotton: Hailed the ruling as a "huge victory for the American people" and a blow to the administrative state.

• Business Community: Applauded the ruling for creating a more predictable regulatory environment.

  • U.S. Chamber of Commerce CEO Suzanne Clark: Called it an "important course correction" against inconsistent regulations driven by changing administrations.

• Legal Experts:

  • Jeff Holmstead: Predicted the ruling would change how agencies make regulations, emphasizing adherence to Congressional intent.

🌐 Implications for Agencies:

• Federal agencies will need to start with statutory language and interpret based on Congressional intent rather than creating regulations to fit pre-existing programs.

📉 Criticism:

• Democrats and Labor Groups: Condemned the ruling, warning it empowers corporations and diminishes regulatory protections.

  • Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer: Criticized the Court's conservative majority for siding with special interests.

  • AFL-CIO President Liz Shuler: Called the decision a gift to corporate interests, undermining the federal government's regulatory capabilities.

• White House Response: White House Press Secretary Karine Jean-Pierre indicated President Biden directed his legal team to review the decision carefully, signaling potential legal and legislative responses.

This landmark decision marks a significant shift in the balance of power between federal agencies and the judiciary, setting the stage for future debates on regulatory authority and legislative clarity.

6. New York Fed Reports Surge in Reverse Repo Inflows to Highest Level Since January: The Federal Reserve Bank of New York has seen significant inflows into its reverse repo facility, marking the highest level of the year.

🔍 Key Points:

• Reverse Repo Inflows: On Friday, inflows into the Fed's reverse repo facility reached $664.6 billion, the highest since January 10, when it was $680 billion.

• Quarter-End Impact: This surge is typical at the quarter's end, driven by financial institutions managing their balance sheets. The inflows are expected to normalize as the new quarter begins.

🏦 Understanding Reverse Repo:

• Purpose: The reverse repo facility is a tool used by the Federal Reserve to help control short-term interest rates by absorbing excess liquidity from the banking system.

• Mechanism: Financial institutions lend cash to the Fed overnight in exchange for Treasury securities, which helps set a floor under short-term interest rates.

📊 Market Implications:

• The increase in reverse repo activity can indicate heightened demand for safe, short-term investments.

• Such trends are closely watched by market participants as they can signal shifts in liquidity and interest rate expectations.

This spike in reverse repo inflows underscores the ongoing efforts by the Federal Reserve to manage liquidity and stabilize short-term interest rates in a fluctuating economic environment.

7. CDK Recovers Auto Retailer Services After Cyber Attack: 

Key Points:

• Restoration Progress: CDK Global, a leading software provider for auto retailers, has successfully brought several dealer groups back online following a cyber attack that caused a significant outage.

• Affected Dealers: The company has restored services for two small groups and one large publicly traded group of auto retailers. The names of these dealers were not disclosed.

• Phased Approach: CDK is continuing its phased restoration process, focusing on bringing more applications live, including customer relationship management (CRM), service solutions, and customer care channels.

Context:

• Cyber Attack Impact: The outage forced over 15,000 retail locations in the U.S. to revert to manual processes for handling sales and services.

• Initial Test Group: Earlier in the week, CDK brought a small test group of dealers back onto its dealer management system as part of its recovery efforts.

Company Statement:

• CDK emphasized its commitment to restoring services promptly and assured customers of continuous updates as the situation progresses. The company acknowledged the urgency for auto dealers to return to normal operations and is actively working to restore all functionalities.

This recovery effort is crucial for auto retailers relying on CDK's software for managing dealership operations, customer interactions, and service management. The phased restoration indicates a methodical approach to ensure stability and security post-attack.

8. EU Antitrust Investigation Targets Microsoft-OpenAI and Google-Samsung Deals:

Key Points:

• Antitrust Concerns: The European Union's competition regulators are scrutinizing AI deals involving Microsoft-OpenAI and Google-Samsung, focusing on potential exclusivity clauses that might harm competition.

• Exclusivity Clauses: EU competition chief Margrethe Vestager highlighted concerns over exclusivity clauses in Microsoft's partnership with OpenAI and Google's agreement with Samsung.

• Third-Party Views: The EU regulators plan to gather additional third-party opinions to assess the impact of these deals on competitors.

Details:

• Microsoft-OpenAI Partnership: Vestager sent a follow-up request for information on the agreement between Microsoft and OpenAI to understand the potential negative effects on competitors. This partnership involves significant investment by Microsoft, which has invested $13 billion in OpenAI’s for-profit subsidiary, aiming for a 49% stake.

• Google-Samsung Deal: Google's deal with Samsung to pre-install its AI model Gemini Nano on certain Samsung devices has also attracted regulatory attention. The agreement is part of a multi-year deal to embed Google’s generative AI technology in Samsung's Galaxy S24 series smartphones.

Additional Concerns:

• Blocking Smaller Developers: Vestager expressed worries about Big Tech companies potentially blocking smaller AI developers from accessing users and businesses.

• "Acqui-Hires": The practice of acquiring companies mainly for their talent, as seen in Microsoft's $650-million acquisition of Inflection, is also under review. The EU aims to ensure such practices don't evade merger control rules if they lead to a concentration of market power.

Company Responses:

• Microsoft: A spokesperson for Microsoft stated they are ready to respond to any additional questions the European Commission may have.

• Regulatory Actions: Vestager indicated that the partnership between Microsoft and OpenAI would not fall under EU merger rules due to the absence of control, but the potential anti-competitive effects remain a concern.

These investigations reflect global regulatory unease about the influence of Big Tech companies in the rapidly evolving AI sector, emphasizing the importance of maintaining competitive markets and preventing dominance from stifling innovation and competition.

9. US SEC sues blockchain software technology company Consensys: The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has filed a lawsuit against blockchain software technology company ConsenSys, alleging it has failed to register as a broker through its MetaMask swaps service. Additionally, the SEC claims ConsenSys did not register the offer and sale of certain securities through its crypto staking programs, which allow users to lock up tokens in exchange for yield.

Key Points:

1. Allegations Against ConsenSys:

   • The SEC's complaint, filed in U.S. District Court in Brooklyn, New York, states that ConsenSys collected more than $250 million in fees through its conduct as an unregistered broker.

   • ConsenSys operates MetaMask, a popular self-custodial crypto wallet enabling users to store, buy, send, and swap tokens.

2. Previous Legal Actions:

   • In April, ConsenSys sued the SEC after receiving a formal notice from the agency about a planned enforcement action.

   • ConsenSys claimed the SEC was attempting to unlawfully regulate ether, the world's second-largest cryptocurrency, through enforcement actions.

3. Recent Developments:

   • On June 19, ConsenSys announced via social media that it had received notice that the SEC had closed its investigation into the company. However, ConsenSys stated it would continue its lawsuit to seek a court ruling on whether the SEC has the legal authority to regulate software interfaces built on the Ethereum blockchain.

4. Impact and Implications:

   • This lawsuit underscores the ongoing regulatory scrutiny faced by cryptocurrency companies and the broader blockchain industry.

   • The outcome of this case could have significant implications for how blockchain companies operate and are regulated, particularly concerning the offering and sale of digital assets and securities.

ConsenSys has yet to respond to the SEC's latest allegations. The case highlights the tension between regulatory bodies and the rapidly evolving blockchain and cryptocurrency sectors, with significant legal and financial stakes for both sides.

10. Wall St Week Ahead: Upcoming economic reports and Congressional testimony from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell could potentially disrupt the U.S. Treasury market from its current narrow trading range. The yields on benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasuries have fluctuated between 4.20% and 4.35% since mid-June. As of Friday, the 10-year yield stood at 4.33%.

Current Market Conditions

• Inflation and Economic Growth Data: Recent data indicates slowing inflation and signs of cooling economic growth. This has kept Treasury yields within a narrow range as investors gauge the Fed's future interest rate moves.

• Fed Rate Cuts: There is ongoing uncertainty about the extent of the Fed’s ability to cut interest rates this year. Futures linked to the fed funds rate show traders pricing in just under 50 basis points of rate cuts for the year.

Key Upcoming Events

• Employment Data: Scheduled for release next Friday, this data could significantly impact the market. An increase in the unemployment rate could push yields lower.

• Inflation Data: Consumer price data is scheduled for July 11, providing further insights into inflation trends.

• Fed Chairman's Testimony: Powell’s semiannual testimony on monetary policy is set for July 9 at the Senate Banking Committee, with a subsequent session at the House Financial Services Committee.

Market Sentiment and Reactions

• Current Sentiment: The market is currently in a narrative of incremental softness without a significant growth scare, maintaining the current yield range.

• Low Liquidity Impact: With many bond traders on vacation for the July 4th holiday, reactions to the employment data could be more pronounced due to lower liquidity.

• Fund Managers' Positioning: A BofA Global Research survey shows fund managers are the most underweight on bonds since November 2022, indicating a potential for yields to fall if weakening data supports more rate cuts.

Investor Perspectives

• Limited Downside for Yields: Despite recent cooling, inflation remains stubborn, limiting how much the Fed can cut rates. Unexpected inflationary rebounds, like the one in Australia, underscore the challenges central banks face in controlling consumer prices.

• Long-term Expectations: Some investors believe inflation will not return to pre-pandemic levels and that the U.S. economy will exhibit underlying strength, which could limit the downside for bond yields.

• Adjustments in Market Expectations: Investors have become more accustomed to the idea that future Fed rate cuts may not be as aggressive as previously thought. There is skepticism about significant yield falls based on one month of negative data.

Conclusion

The upcoming economic reports and Powell's testimony are critical in determining the future movement of U.S. Treasury yields. While the market remains in a narrow range due to current data, any significant changes in employment or inflation data could prompt notable market reactions. Investors are closely watching these developments to adjust their strategies accordingly.

Phew, that's a lot to unpack! Remember, this is just a snapshot of the complex and ever-evolving financial landscape. So, stay informed, diversify your investments, and don't forget to have a little fun along the way!

Bonus Tip: Want to dig deeper into any of these stories? Let me know in the comments below, and I'll be happy to share some additional resources!

And there you have it, folks! Remember, folks, the financial world is like a game of Monopoly—sometimes you’re the banker, sometimes you’re stuck in jail, and occasionally you land on Boardwalk and buy a hotel. Happy investing! 📈💰

 P.S. Did we miss anything major? Hit us up via an email with your hot takes and financial insights!

Part 2: "Reflect and Reassess: Taking Stock of Your Financial Goals"

• Overview: Guides readers on how to reflect on their initial financial goals and reassess their relevance.

• Key Points: Reviewing set goals, determining their progress, and assessing their continued importance.

Reflect and Reassess: Taking Stock of Your Financial Goals

🔍 Overview

As we navigate through the year, it’s crucial to periodically reflect on our financial goals to ensure they remain relevant and attainable. This process involves taking stock of your progress, reassessing your goals, and making necessary adjustments to stay on track. In this article, we’ll explore the importance of reflecting and reassessing your financial goals and provide practical steps to help you do so effectively.

📊 The Importance of Reflecting and Reassessing Financial Goals

1. Stay Aligned with Life Changes:

   • Life is dynamic, and so are your financial circumstances. Reflecting on your goals helps you adjust to significant life changes such as a new job, marriage, or unexpected expenses.

2. Maintain Motivation and Focus:

   • Regular reflection helps you stay motivated by reminding you of your progress and the reasons behind your goals. It keeps you focused on what’s important and prevents drift.

3. Enhance Financial Flexibility:

   • Reassessing your goals allows you to adapt to market changes, economic conditions, and personal financial shifts. This flexibility is key to achieving long-term financial success.

🔧 Practical Steps to Reflect and Reassess Your Financial Goals

1. Review Your Original Goals:

   • Start by revisiting the financial goals you set at the beginning of the year. Categorize them into short-term, mid-term, and long-term goals.

   • Tip: Write down your goals and their timelines to have a clear reference point.

2. Evaluate Your Progress:

   • Assess how much progress you’ve made towards each goal. Are you on track, ahead, or behind? Use measurable criteria to gauge your success.

   • Tip: Use a progress tracker or spreadsheet to visually monitor your achievements.

3. Identify Any Changes in Circumstances:

   • Consider any significant changes in your life or financial situation. Have there been changes in your income, expenses, or major life events that impact your goals?

   • Tip: Keep a financial diary to note significant events and their impact on your goals.

4. Analyze What's Working and What's Not:

   • Reflect on the strategies you’ve implemented. Which ones are driving success? Which ones are falling short? Understanding this will help you adjust your approach.

   • Tip: Conduct a SWOT analysis (Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities, Threats) to evaluate your strategies.

5. Adjust Your Goals and Strategies:

   • Based on your evaluation, make necessary adjustments. This might involve setting new goals, modifying existing ones, or changing your strategies to better align with your current situation.

   • Tip: Break down larger goals into smaller, more manageable tasks to make progress more achievable.

6. Set New Milestones:

   • Establish new milestones for the next half of the year. These should be specific, measurable, achievable, relevant, and time-bound (SMART).

   • Tip: Use calendar reminders or financial apps to keep track of these milestones and stay accountable.

📈 Moving Forward

Reflecting and reassessing your financial goals is a crucial part of your financial journey. It helps you stay adaptable and focused, ensuring that your financial plans evolve with your changing life circumstances. Regularly engaging in this process will empower you to achieve your financial aspirations more effectively.

💡 Conclusion

Taking stock of your financial goals mid-year is not just about evaluating progress; it’s about realigning your strategies to ensure success. By reflecting on your achievements and reassessing your plans, you can make informed adjustments that keep you on the path to financial prosperity. Embrace this practice, and let it guide you to a more secure and fulfilling financial future.

—

So, there you have it! With a little guidance and the right tools, you'll be a master in understanding (and hopefully master it) financial concepts in no time. Go forth, plant your seeds, and watch your wealth garden flourish!

This is the SECOND part in this comprehensive 9 part series on “Mid-Year Money Mastery: Your Guide to Financial Checkups and Strategic Adjustments” (we want to get you ready for the next step in your life, whatever it may be).

If you liked this, check out other series including, a 9 part extensive series on “Credit Alchemy: Transforming Your Worth into Wealth” and all our previous articles here.

So, whether you are crawling and sprinting, let's do this together!

We will bring the next series to you in the next week episode.

Until next time, wishing a very happy wealthness (you see what we did there 😃) to you!

📚 Bonus Resources:

1. Investopedia: Investopedia provides comprehensive information on creditworthiness, including factors that impact it, how to check your credit report, and steps to enhance your creditworthiness. Remember that your creditworthiness affects loan approvals, interest rates, and more.

2. The Balance: The Balance explains creditworthiness and emphasizes the importance of monitoring your credit score. You can access your credit score for free through services like Credit Karma, Credit Sesame, or WalletHub.

3. SuperMoney: SuperMoney offers practical steps for managing creditworthiness. You can obtain a free annual credit report from AnnualCreditReport.com or use free credit monitoring services like Credit Karma or Credit Sesame.

Remember to stay informed, check your credit score regularly, and make timely payments to maintain a strong credit profile. 🌟📊💳

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